For five years, Stefanos Tsitsipas remained a fixture in the ATP top-10, a model of consistency at the highest level. Currently, though, he finds himself on the outside looking in, sitting at World No.12. Only a slight drop on paper, but a significant one in the upper echelon of men’s tennis.
His most recent exit came in the quarter-finals of the Rotterdam 500 event. Following a strong – and expected – win over Harold Mayot, Tsitsipas had a hard-fought win over local favourite Tallon Griekspoor. Those two victories were overshadowed, however, by a somewhat inglorious defeat in the quarter-final at the hands of the world No.92 Mattia Bellucci.
Whilst not a cause for alarm, it does warrant the question: What does Tsitsipas need to do to regain his footing among the elite and return to being a perennial Grand Slam contender?
His recent major performances illustrate the shift. Over his last eight Grand Slam appearances, he has made two quarter-finals and two fourth rounds - respectable, but a step down from the two finals and sole semi-final he reached in the previous eight.
For a player of Tsitsipas' calibre, these margins matter. While he remains within striking distance, the rapid emergence of new talents means that players like Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, and others risk being overshadowed if they don’t evolve.
A Shock Exit in Melbourne
A telling moment in Tsitsipas’ recent struggles came at the 2025 Australian Open, where he suffered a stunning first-round exit at the hands of 19-year-old American Alex Michelsen. The loss was in stark contrast to his run to the final in Melbourne just two years prior and highlighted some of the vulnerabilities in his game.
The defeat was particularly disappointing given his strong preparation leading into the event.
Before the tournament, Tsitsipas had spoken positively about his work during the preseason.
"I worked very hard in Dubai getting ready for Australia. Overall, I was very happy with the way I committed to the work, and my mentality during the pre-season seemed pretty good," he explained.
Yet, the result showed that something wasn’t quite clicking. Tsitsipas himself admitted that he has felt "stuck" in recent times.
"I’m looking to kind of reinvent myself," he shared. "I felt like I’ve been stuck in a pattern for the last few months and haven’t been able to unlock the pattern or get out of it."
Reflecting after the match, the Greek star acknowledged a shift in his own evolving mindset when discussing the earlier years of his career, with a hint that the drive might not be as strong anymore.
"For sure, I had a fresher mind back then. It seemed like I was hungrier in a completely different way than I am now," he said. "I would definitely say that one thing that stood out the most back then is that I had this hunger to try and make a life out of tennis and to try to have a good beginning in my tennis career."
A Shift in the Game
Following that early exit in Melbourne, Tsitsipas also acknowledged the changing nature of the tour. Looking back again to his early years, he noted how the physical demands have escalated.
"When I came around in 2018, the game was very different to what it is now. It wasn’t as physical. I’ve had wins over Novak, and I felt like I played well, and I didn’t have to kind of exceed the most extreme version of myself in that particular match," he mentioned.
"I feel like the margins become smaller, meaning that you’re not getting as many free points. I feel like innovation has stepped in and allowed players to serve even bigger than before."
There might be a hint in that last sentence.
His 2024 results were solid, but not spectacular. He captured another Monte Carlo Masters title and made quarter-finals in Rome and Roland Garros, proving he still has the weapons to compete at the highest level. However, a key difference between his past peak performances and his current form is his return game.
Tsitsipas' return statistics reveal the challenge he faces. His 2024 numbers show a clear decline from 2021.
While Tsitsipas’ service game remains elite - he ranked 16th in service games won in 2024, ahead of Djokovic and just behind Alcaraz - his struggles on return mean he has to hold at an extremely high rate just to stay in matches.
First serve return points won: 28.55 per cent (61st on tour). In 2021, he was at 31.4 per cent (28th).
Second-serve return points won: 47.86 per cent (97th). In 2021, he was at 51.2 per cent (46th).
Return games won: 22.22 per cent (32nd). In 2021, this was 25.28 per cent, which would have placed him 16th last season had he kept that level.
In contrast, the players at the top of the sport in 2024 are significantly ahead:
Carlos Alcaraz: 34.4 per cent first-serve return points won
Jannik Sinner: 55.85 per cent second-serve return points won
Alex de Minaur: 31.06 per cent return games won
A slight improvement in these numbers for Tsitsipas could make a substantial difference.
Andy Roddick, a former world No.1 and keen analyst, pinpointed this as a critical area for Tsitsipas.
"His first-serve return has to improve somehow, someway. When you make a first serve against him, you’re normally looking at a ball that you can be aggressive on the next one," he said.
The One-Handed Backhand Factor
There may be a deeper issue at play - one that single-handed backhand players have historically battled. Tsitsipas, along with Grigor Dimitrov, Lorenzo Musetti, and Denis Shapovalov all face similar challenges in breaking serve.
The numbers suggest some sort of ceiling for single-handers, as even the great Roger Federer averaged a career 'return-games-won percentage' of 26.6 per cent. In contrast, Rafael Nadal (33.3 per cent), Novak Djokovic (31.9 per cent), and Andy Murray (29.9 per cent) thrived with two-handed backhands, which provide greater stability against high-kicking serves.
Nadal’s long-time strategy against Federer - pounding heavy topspin serves to the backhand - highlighted this weakness, and Tsitsipas faces a similar dilemma. With powerful servers more prevalent than ever, he often finds himself neutralised early in return games.
Unless he finds a way to compensate through improved anticipation, better footwork, or adjusting his court positioning, his struggles in return games could continue to hold him back.
A Path Back to the Top
Tsitsipas isn’t far from where he wants to be. His win-loss records remain strong:
2024: 42-21 (66.7 per cent)
2023: 44-23 (65.7 per cent)
2022: 57-22 (72.2 per cent)
2021: 52-19 (73.2 per cent)
But the numbers also reflect a gradual dip.
His 2021 peak saw him challenge for Grand Slam titles, and since then, the margins have worked against him. Yet, he remains optimistic about reinvention in 2025.
"I have had a good time off, and I am really prepared now. I feel I’m fresh. I’m happy to be very fit because I’ve worked a lot on fitness in recent months. Tennis-wise, I’m there. I just need to now deliver."
If he can make even incremental improvements on return, his overall game is still good enough to put him back into the mix for the biggest titles. The tour’s evolution has placed new demands on players, but Tsitsipas, still only 26, has the time and talent to adapt.
His mission now is clear: refine his return game, stay aggressive, and make the small adjustments that could propel him back to the top.
Tsitsipas begins his campaign at the Doha 500 in Qatar against Serbia's Hamad Medjedovic on Wednesday morning (AEDT).
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