There is already an abundance of comparisons between the careers of Rafael Nadal and his young compatriot Carlos Alcaraz.
Some are the youthful exuberance in which they play, their tenacity, their prowess on clay, power and ultimate success at such a young age.
One already alarming similarity is the pair’s record on tour once the European indoor swing rolls around after the tour leaves Asia for the year, generally around the October and November periods.
Throughout his career, Nadal only ever clinched four titles post the US Open and only one of those was on an indoor hard court (Madrid 2005). He did win the Sao Paolo indoor event in 2013, but that was on his beloved clay.
The 38-year-old did reach four hard court indoor finals throughout his now-completed career, with two being at the ATP Finals, one at the Paris Masters and the other in Basel, but taking into consideration his lofty winning percentages across his time on tour.
The Spaniard’s overall record under a roof sits at 95 wins and 44 losses at 68.3 per cent, which is far from bad when you look at comparisons to the general player, but it is well below his 84.3 per cent win ratio on an outdoor surface.
Roger Federer went at 81 per cent at indoor tournaments, Novak Djokovic at 79.8 per cent and Andy Murray at 74.2 per cent, with all three conquering the ATP Finals and Paris Masters throughout their careers.
Injuries have wreaked havoc for the 22-time Grand Slam champion as well, there is no doubt about that, but he always seemed to struggle in those conditions, even preferring to play in the day sessions at the Australian Open.
With that in mind and the past few seasons to inspect, the question must be asked if Carlos Alcaraz is heading in the same direction.
Speaking to the press at the ATP Finals in Turin, the four-time major winner discussed his desire to be a brilliant indoor player and fix his record, which currently stands at 24 victories and 12 defeats at 66.7 per cent with no titles or finals, well below his 80.7 per cent win rate on outdoor courts.
"I have no experience playing on indoor courts. I could practice a lot on indoor courts, but I don’t have matches in my back on indoor courts," Alcaraz said.
"So I don’t know. I have to be better on this part of the year that we play on indoor courts. I don’t know. I’ll be a really good player on indoor courts, I’m sure about it. But I think it’s about time, about getting experience, getting matches in my back, hitting on indoor courts.
"I don’t feel that I’m a bad player indoors. Probably I’m going to say a lot of players are better than me on indoor court. I don’t know. I can’t answer as good as I wanted to this question."
Yes, it certainly is a lack of matches, having played only 36 at tour level as opposed to his 228 on outdoor courts, but the problems that he and Nadal have faced are very similar.
He is right, he’s far from a bad player in such conditions, but it seems he cannot harness his abilities.
Since his eligibility to play at the ATP Finals, Alcaraz missed 2022 with injury, reached the semifinals in 2023 and was eliminated in the group stage in 2024.
This year was unfortunate with illness cruelling his tilt, but he was outclassed in Paris by Ugo Humbert just a fortnight prior and could not combat the Frenchman’s flare in instances where he usually would.
Is it a case of body fatigue? Nadal has often said the season is too long and he did struggle to sustain his high-octane level past the US Open. It could be a case of Alcaraz doing the same.
However, what bodes well for the young superstar of the sport is that he is 21, and if he lasts until 38 like Nadal did then he has the next 17 years to figure out what he needs to do to match the exploits of Federer, Djokovic, Murray and now Jannik Sinner at the back end of the season.
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