As of the ATP rankings update on Monday July 22, there are ten Australians inside the ATP top 100 – marking a 42-year high for our Aussie men.
And yet, Alex de Minaur stands alone inside the top-40 and amongst the true contenders at major events.
It opens the discussion as to how we view our Australian contingent. Does elite depth trump a second top-line contender?
The First Serve’s Brett Phillips wants to see the standard become higher than just a double-digit ranking.
“It’s great to have all these men inside the top 100 – which is the benchmark of professional tennis – but I would love the narrative to change around that,” Phillips said during the live
show.
“I’d love to see more in the 0-50 category.”
Marc McGowan, tennis journalist with The Age, holds a glass-half full approach when assessing our male cohort.
“If you really step back, [ten men in the top-100] is an enormous effort.”
“We’re a long way away from where most of the tournaments are played. We know we have a grand slam, and we’re very lucky to have that, but the majority of the tour is played a heck of a long way away from Australia.”
“The challenge is going from being top 100 players to real difference makers; inside the top 50, around that mark of being seeded at the Grand Slams.”
From Competitors to Threats
Entering a Grand Slam unseeded in 2024 poses an immense challenge.
It almost guarantees a match against a seed in the first or second round, possibly even a top-10 player, necessitating a major upset just to stay in the tournament.
And over the past decade, very few Australian men have gifted themselves the luxury of a Grand Slam seed, and consequently, the ability to find a rhythm before encountering the absolute best.
Since Lleyton Hewitt contested his final major as a seed at the 2010 US Open, just three Aussie men have entered a Grand Slam singles draw with a top-32 badge.
Alex de Minaur – 20 seeded entries.
Nick Kyrgios – 16 seeded entries.
Bernard Tomic – 10 seeded entries.
And with Tomic grinding away at the lower level and Kyrgios amid a two-year absence from the tour, Australian men’s tennis has been calling out for the emergence of a second option.
“Behind Alex, we don’t have an obvious number two”, McGowan said.
Despite no country having more top-100 ranked men than Australia, twenty-one nations rival us for top-40 players - and many hold a stronger top-line contingent.
But who can make the jump?
When pondering this question, it’s often the power hitters who jump off the page, namely Thanasi Kokkinakis and Alexei Popyrin.
“Kokkinakis is generally the man Lleyton Hewitt has turned to in Davis Cup, but he’s never been ranked higher than the mid 60’s,” McGowan disclaimed.
“I’d love to see someone else in that top 20. I think Popyrin is the closest at the moment. He’s the one with the most upside to go to that next level, but Thanasi has that potential as well.”
And while the pair showcase the greatest promise among our current cohort, compatriots Max Purcell, Rinky Hijikata, Jordan Thompson, and Aleks Vukic are equally capable of earning a Grand Slam seed.
So, what does it take to reach Grand Slam seeding?
While the entire top 100 have the skill or spirit to cause a top-20 upset on their day, the rankings system rewards consistency and capitalisation.
Under the 52-week rolling system, consistency becomes a major separator for those inside and outside the top 40. The ability to compete week in, week out is rewarded; one which is often a challenge for Australian players spending several months abroad.
Capitalisation is also crucial. In tennis, the margins are minute, and capitalising on periods of advantage is necessary for progression.
Be it a strong patch of form, a fortunate run of draws, dominance on a surface, or a home swing, maximising an aspect of ascendancy allows players to soar towards Grand Slam seeding range.
Argentine Mariano Navone perfectly exemplified this, leveraging a strong South American clay circuit to secure a seed at Wimbledon, despite having never beaten a top-1000 player off clay.
And there’s little doubt that all our top-100 men are capable of reaching a similar mark – a sight which all Australian tennis fans would love to see.
Ultimately, ten men inside the top-100 is an incredible feat for a nation with our location and population, but when it comes to the major events, it would be pleasing to see another name or two alleviate some pressure on the ‘Demon’.
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