Day 2 of the Australian Open sees the highly anticipated matchup between Nick Kyrgios and young Brit Jacob Fearnley.
What makes the upcoming clash interesting isn’t just the return of Kyrgios against an exciting British upstart, but because of the amount of unknowns.
Kyrgios is returning for his first Grand Slam since the 2022 US Open and hasn’t won a match since October of that year.
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Fearnley had an extraordinary rankings rise from outside the top-600 to inside the top-100 last season. However, he did it almost entirely on the Challenger circuit.
The 23-year-old Scot is match-hardened, but played just three main draw tournaments on the ATP tour in 2024.
So, who will come out on top - the wounded champion, or the plucky young upstart?
And what will be key to the outcome of the match?
Serve
It’s obvious that Kyrgios will need to serve well. His game is built around his strongest weapon.
At his match in Brisbane, he had made an impressive 76 per cent of first serves and faced just two break points the entire match.
He won 83 per cent of points on his first serve, peaking at 89 per cent in the third set.
If Kyrgios can serve just as well, he will help his chances in multiple ways.
It will, for starters, give him a lot of free points, but it will also shorten the length of points putting less strain on his body and piling pressure on Fearnley to hold each time.
However, there are positives for Fearnely. With Kyrgios' injuries, it’s not quite the unplayable weapon it was before.
Fearnley is a more all-around player than Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and is likely to get more balls back in play.
The youngster also has a decent serve himself, averaging in the 190s (km/h) and consistently being able to hit over the 200 mark.
However, he can be quite inconsistent. At the recent Canberra Challenger, he was getting anywhere between 50-70 per cent of first serves in per match.
If he wants to win this match, he’ll need to be serving at a high percentage.
Point length
Throughout Kyrgios' career, generally the shorter the point, the more often he’ll win.
Add in his injury concerns, it’s clear he doesn’t want to get into long drawn-out points and a long draw-out contest.
In his match against the bigger serving Mpetshi Perricard, it was in his favour to keep the points longer. However, it’ll be completely the opposite against the young Brit.
Fearnley has the ability to keep his Australian opponent out on court for longer than he’d like.
Keeping in the point by using his diverse array of shots, and particularly his effective slice backhand, will be key.
Focusing on Kyrgios' backhand, although consistent, isn’t his biggest weapon and will not blow Fearnley off the court.
However, this may go against some of the Brit’s instincts. On the Challenger circuit, he is often the more aggressive player.
He can rack up unforced errors by overplaying or when under pressure.
In his Wimbledon match against Novak Djokovic where he lost in four sets, he showed flashes of brilliance, but ultimately hit more unforced errors than winners.
He was aggressive and pushed Novak Djokovic in the later stages of the match. In saying that, keeping that level for a best of five is easier said than done.
Ultimately in a battle of hitting off the court, it’s likely he’ll come off second-best to the Aussie.
The crowd
The match will be played on Nick’s favourite court: John Cain Arena.
Although not an aspect of Kyrgios' game, it may be his biggest asset tonight.
In Fearnley's press conference, nearly every question directed to him was about how he expects to handle the crowd.
When he saw the draw, he admitted to "having a bit of anxiety" about the match-up and particularly the crowd.
It was an experience another Brit, Liam Broady, said was "absolutely awful" and described as a "zoo" when he played Kyrgios there in 2022.
Fearnley has removed himself from social media in preparation and will be hoping his days of college tennis (where crowds can be particularly aggressive) will help.
He said he was hoping to "ignore" the home fans, but the best he can do is try and take them out of it.
Kyrgios feeds off the arena’s energy and will be wanting to get a lead, hit some big winners and dominate the space.
If Fearnley can either start well or just stay in the game and put pressure on Kyrgios and not follow the expected script, the crowd may not have its usual influence.
If Kyrgios goes down a set early and doesn’t get the usual fan response, winning three sets will be a long way away for his mind and body.
So what will happen?
This is the kind of match where almost any result will not be a surprise.
Kyrgios could absolutely turn it on and win comfortably in three, or he could just be a little "underdone" and go out comfortably to a match-hardened opponent.
On the other hand, Fearnley could be completely overawed by the occasion and his lack of experience and falter, or take the confidence of his game and youth and jump Kyrgios in his own backyard.
Whatever happens, it’ll be must-watch action. Grab your popcorn!
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