In his ninth attempt, Alex de Minaur will play in his first-ever Australian Open quarter-final where he will show up on Rod Laver Arena, the stadium named after the 11-time Grand Slam legend, hoping to emulate the great man himself.
Becoming the first Aussie to reach the last-eight at Melbourne Park in a decade, de Minaur has dropped one set en route to his best showing at his home Slam.
On paper, the No.8 seed is three wins away from lifting the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup. Simple, right? If only it were that.
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Tonight, de Minaur will contest arguably the biggest match of his career as he attempts to conquer his greatest challenge in the form of Jannik Sinner.
The defending Australian Open champion and world No.1 enjoys a phenomenal 9-0 head-to-head record over de Minaur, with eight of those meetings contested on hard court.
"You know, the great thing about tennis is that once you step out on the court, you both start at 0-0, right? It's a whole new day, a whole new match, and anything can happen. Sports is unpredictable," said de Minaur ahead of his match against the Italian.
So lopsided in fact, that the three-time Newcombe medalist has only managed to clinch one set out of a possible 21 since their first clash in 2019.
It goes without saying that de Minaur will arrive as a heavy underdog, but how can he give himself the best possible chance of securing an almighty scalp?
First serve percentage and serve efficiency
When it comes to this particular clash, the main difference has always been the disparity in serve quality between the duo.
In their nine meetings, Sinner has broken de Minaur's serve 33 times compared to the latter's nine service breaks.
One massive improvement in de Minaur's game over the past couple of years has been his ability to produce natural power.
Against Alex Michelsen, the Aussie served as fast as 215km/h, winning free points on serve and allowing himself to set up points on his terms.
Serve variety is another important key, as de Minaur explained after his fourth-round win.
"I do have that extra pop on my serve where I can get, you know, that 215, for example, but doesn't mean I've got to use it all the time. It's about using that variety and setting up the next shot and keeping your opponents guessing whether you're going to go for the big one down the T or you're going to take a little bit of pace off and go for the short slider, go somewhere in the body, just keep that variety going."
However, he needs to significantly improve his first serve percentage, with de Minaur making 49 per cent of his first serves against Michelsen and Francisco Cerúndolo. If that trend continues, then expect Sinner to breeze through.
Enter lockdown mode early
The first few games are going to be critical in determining which way the match swings.
"I think you're going to see a statement early on," said John Millman on Channel 9's The Morning Serve. "Those first five, six games, Alex is going to go into lockdown mode. He's going to be relentless, he won't make unforced errors, he will not make it easy and really feel out where Jannik is at health-wise."
De Minaur can ill-afford to hand free points, whether it be on serve or avoidable unforced errors.
Knowing that Sinner will be slightly vulnerable after reports suggesting he is suffering from a serious illness, the start of the match is key to stamping his authority and testing where the defending champion is at physically.
Take the positives away from his Rotterdam performance
In February last year, despite suffering a straight sets loss (5-7 4-6), de Minaur came closest from a performance perspective in the Rotterdam final.
"[I have to] look back at the match I played in Rotterdam. For me, that one was probably, out of the last matches we have played, the only one that I can really take a lot out of, because I was physically at 100 per cent, and I think that was quite a good battle with opportunities here and there," he said ahead of his showdown against Sinner.
There were golden chances for him to get a better foot-hold of the match, winning two more receiving points and letting slip four break points.
He served well above par, firing 10 aces and getting himself in the lower end of the 60 per cent range for first serves made, first serve points won and second serve points won.
The Sydneysider was aggressive from the back of the court, opting to come forward when he smelt blood. It put Sinner on notice and forced the two-time Grand Slam winner to come up with quick solutions such as going bigger on the forehand and mixing up his game with more slices.
Bring Sinner to the net
We know Sinner can blow every player off the court from the baseline, that's quite an obvious statement. If de Minaur continues to tussle in those lengthy rallies, he won't find success.
But one possible weakness that he could potentially exploit is Sinner's net game.
De Minaur's backhand slice is rather short compared to the forehand side, which will force the Italian to approach the net and take him out of his preferred strike zone from the baseline.
He needs to make life as uncomfortable as possible for Sinner, and this tactic (when deployed at the right moments) may go a long way in doing that.
Final observations
Even when he wasn't at full health, Sinner still looked a class above No.13 seed Holger Rune with some luck falling his way, it must be noted.
De Minaur is the type of personality who won't let an unfavourable 0-9 head-to-head record deter him from giving his all. He, like a true Aussie, thrives on the underdog tag.
In what would go down as de Minaur's career-best win, still, it's too difficult to see past a Sinner victory.
Author's prediction
Sinner in four
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