As the Australian Open nears the halfway mark with fourth-round matches about to commence, we break down each quarter and take a look at who is primed to make a deep run at Melbourne Park.
FIRST QUARTER:
Jannik Sinner [1] vs Holger Rune [13]
Alex Michelsen vs Alex de Minaur [8]
The obvious name here is world no. 1 and defending champion Jannik Sinner who has looked relatively untroubled through the first three rounds.
Facing Sinner in the fourth round is Dane Holger Rune who has a surprisingly good record against the Italian. The pair have split their four matches against one another and, although Sinner has won the last two, all four matches have required a deciding set.
One factor that may decide that round of 16 matches is fitness. Rune is not known for his endurance and the world no.13 has spent almost three more hours on court than his rival, having had the tougher draw to this point.
Awaiting Sinner or Rune will be the winner of unseeded American Alex Michelsen and Alex de Minaur.
Michelsen, who sprung one of the first upsets of the Australian Open by beating 11th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round, did defeat de Minaur in their first encounter in Mexico last year but the Australian quickly got his revenge at the French Open losing only three games in three sets.
Neither Michselson (0-2) nor de Minaur (0-9) has defeated Jannik Sinner; should he be waiting for either of them.
SECOND QUARTER:
Gael Monfils vs Ben Shelton [21]
Lorenzo Sonego vs Learner Tien [Q]
With top-10 trio Andrey Rublev, Taylor Fritz, and Daniil Medvedev all out of the tournament this quarter is guaranteed to produce a first-time Australian Open semi-finalist.
2023 quarter-finalist and World No. 20 Ben Shelton will like his chances to line up in the semi-final as the highest-ranked player remaining in this quarter.
Shelton will face a resurgent Gael Monfils in the fourth round who is fresh off defeating world no. 4 Taylor Fritz.
Despite his age, Monfils, who has twice reached the quarter-finals at Melbourne Park (2016, 2022) is playing some of his best tennis in years.
The pair have never met but there is sure to be fireworks when they face off as two of the sport’s most explosive playing styles square up. Though Shelton is ranked 21 spots higher than Monfils, the 38-year-old Frenchman is riding an eight-match winning streak into the fourth round.
Awaiting the winner of that match will be a surprise fourth-round winner of either world no. 55, Lorenzo Sonego, or American qualifier and Medvedev-slayer Learner Tien.
Tien, who was a finalist at the NextGen finals in Saudi Arabia in December and is the youngest player to reach the last 16 at the Australian Open since Rafael Nadal in 2005, will prove a tricky match-up for Sonego who is enjoying his best week at Melbourne Park having only once made it out of the second round.
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THIRD QUARTER:
Novak Djokovic [7] vs Jiri Lehecka [24]
Jack Draper [15] vs Carlos Alcaraz [3]
Further down the draw looms the blockbuster fans are waiting for.
10-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic is just one Jiri Lehecka match-up away from a quarter-final showdown against his Wimbledon conqueror Carlos Alcaraz.
Djokovic, however, won’t want to look too far ahead as Lehecka, who Andy Roddick predicts will be top-10 by year’s end, is undefeated to start the year after winning the ATP250 in Brisbane.
Djokovic defeated Lehecka in three sets at the 2024 United Cup; the only time the pair have played.
Alcaraz, meanwhile, will take on Brit Jack Draper in the fourth round.
Unfortunately for the Brit, he won’t arrive at Rod Laver Arena in peak condition having had an interrupted pre-season due to injury and now played back-to-back-to-back five-set matches this week including against Aleksander Vukic and Thanasi Kokkinakis.
While Alcaraz does lead the head-to-head against Draper 2-1, Draper won their last encounter at Queen’s Club last year 7-6, 6-3.
If Alcaraz and Djokovic both progress, it’ll be their first meeting since Djokovic defeated the Spaniard at the Paris Olympics in two tiebreak sets. Djokovic leads their head-to-head 4-3.
FOURTH QUARTER:
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Tommy Paul [12]
Ugo Humbert [14] vs Alexander Zverev [2]
Down the bottom of the draw remains Tommy Paul, who will play Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Ugo Humbert, and second seed Alexander Zverev who will face off on Sunday evening.
Davidovich Fokina, who defeated Jakub Mensik, the man who took out 6th seed Casper Ruud, is yet to register a win against the 12th-seeded American. The pair faced off three times in 2023, all of which on outdoor hard courts, with Paul victorious on each occasion.
Meanwhile, the Humbert and Zverev match-up represents a re-match of the last Masters match of 2024 being Paris Masters final where the German comfortably prevailed 6-2, 6-2.
Humbert, now up to no. 14 in the world, should pose a tougher test than that Parisian scoreline would suggest as his tennis tends to improve with the speed of the court.
Equally, Zverev is not in the same rampaging form as when he won the Paris title having travelled to Melbourne while managing a niggle in his right arm troublesome enough to warrant withdrawing from singles in the United Cup.
Holding a combined 7-0 record against Zverev (2-0), Humbert (2-0), and Davidovich Fokina (3-0), Tommy Paul will fancy his chances of reaching his second Australian Open semi-final.
Author’s predictions:
Q1 Winner: Sinner
Q2 Winner: Shelton
Q3 Winner: Djokovic
Q4 Winner: Paul
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