With the rise of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, Medvedev’s days at the top of men’s tennis appear to be numbered.
The 29-year-old is currently one of the worst-performing top-10 players. He did not win a title in 2024, and if his recent results continue, it’s difficult to see him remain among the top tier and competing for Grand Slams.
These results include losses to Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina, Jiří Lehečka, Frances Tiafoe, Ben Shelton and Alexei Popyrin, all of whom are ranked outside the top-10.
Medvedev hasn’t started 2025 with a bang either, losing to Learner Tien (No.121), Mattia Bellucci (No.92), Hamad Medjedovic (No.96), Auger-Aliassime (No.23) again and Tallon Griekspoor (No.43).
Add his 1-5 record against top-10 ranked opponents, and it’s plain to see that the Russian is experiencing one of the worst patches of his career since he burst onto the scene in 2018.
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This might seem like a harsh assessment, but he was once one of the dominant hard court players on tour.
Between 2018 and 2023, Medvedev accumulated 20 titles, including his lone Grand Slam and six Masters 1000 trophies. However, since his loss at the 2023 US Open final, he has suffered five consecutive defeats in title matches, with his last tournament win stretching back to the Rome Masters in 2023 - almost two years ago.
While his counter-punching game style is still good enough to beat most players, it doesn’t stack up against Sinner and Alcaraz, who bully him around the court.
Now, a range of aggressive hitters are starting to get the better of him, particularly in best-of-three-set matches.
Much has been said of the disappointing returns of players born in the 1990s.
Medvedev and Dominic Thiem are the only 90s babies to have won majors, at one apiece.
Compare this to Sinner and Alcaraz, both born in the naughties, who have already won seven Grand Slams (and counting) between them.
This may be an unfair comparison, especially given Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal denied Medvedev and Thiem multiple times in major finals. Sinner and Alcaraz, meanwhile, have learned to adapt and evolve into more powerful versions of Djokovic and Nadal.
While arguably the third-best player over the last five or six years, Medvedev’s gruelling game style didn’t stack up against the two above him, Djokovic and Nadal, most of the time.
Despite his recent form slump, the Russian remains upbeat.
Speaking ahead of the Open 13 tournament in Marseille two weeks ago, Medvedev didn’t seem fazed by some of his surprise losses.
"I feel pretty good, which might be surprising when you're lacking confidence. I don’t think I’m that far from playing better and achieving better results," he said.
"The question is: will it happen here in Marseille, next week in Doha, in Dubai, or at Indian Wells? Every week is a new opportunity. I had a good pre-season, and that won’t change. I also trained well before Rotterdam, so it’s just a matter of winning more matches."
The former world No.1 also put things in perspective, believing his form isn’t as bad as his results suggest.
"But what’s better when you look at last year? Winning an ATP 250 title or reaching the Australian Open final, the Dubai semi-finals despite not feeling great physically, the Indian Wells final, or the Miami semi-finals? I’d say the finals," he argued.
"But at this moment, the most important thing for me is to win a lot of matches and start feeling better with my game again. In the matches I’ve lost, I feel like I wasn’t that far off.
"I’m not playing my best, but even at this level, I’m still close to winning, which is a good sign because once I get back to my true level, I might start winning matches more easily, and the titles will come again."
So what will it take for Medvedev to turn his form around?
Short of a dramatic shift in his game style, he could perhaps take a leaf out of Stefanos Tsitsipas’ book.
Similar to Medvedev, Tsitsipas had been struggling to regain the form that saw him make two major finals.
Trialling a new racquet (sources suggest it’s a Babolat Pure Aero 98), the Greek No.1 blasted his way to a first ATP 500 title in Dubai, upping the speed and power on his groundstrokes.
This came after Tsitsipas’ reflections following his shock defeat to Alex Michelson at this year’s Australian Open, stating that the game "wasn't as physical" back in 2018 like it is now, and that he didn’t have to "exceed the most extreme version" of himself.
Now, back in the top-10 for the first time since May last year, Tsitsipas is playing with a reinvigorated game style and renewed sense of purpose.
Medvedev certainly needs to change something.
As it stands, it’s hard to envisage him defeating a fully fit Sinner and Alcaraz at Grand Slam level, and, on top of that, a new generation of aggressive baseliners, from Tien to Brazilian superstar João Fonseca, are coming.
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