In tennis, everyone makes comparisons.
Who is the Greatest of All Time (GOAT)? Is Carlos Alcaraz the next Rafael Nadal? Will Cruz Hewitt be as good as his father, Lleyton?
It is a subjective topic that is hard to truly measure. The game changes over the years and some players develop a little later.
However, to try and take a more data-driven approach, The First Serve has analysed where male greats of the game were ranked and what they achieved by certain ages.
Then, in comparison, we can see if today’s players are matching up.
The GOAT track
This century, the undisputed top male players have been Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic.
On their journey to become holders of 20 slams or more, the players all ticked off milestones by a certain age.
By the season they turned 18, all three had won a challenger title and finished the year in the top-100 (Nadal 53, Federer 64 and Djokovic 83).
They all won an ATP title by the season they turned 20, with Nadal doing it at 18 and Djokovic at 19.
All were top 10 players by the time they were 20-years-old, although Federer's was in the year he turned 21.
Most importantly, their first Slam title came by the time they were 21-years-old.
Nadal had just turned 19 when he won the French Open in 2005, Djokovic was 20 (but turning 21 that year) when he won the Australian Open in 2008 and Federer was 21 (turning 22 that season) when he won Wimbledon in 2003.
So to become a GOAT, you should win:
A challenger by 18
An ATP title by 20
A Grand Slam by the year you turn 22
Alcaraz and Sinner on track
Out of all the players that have followed, Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner look on track to become a great.
Alcaraz has followed Nadal’s career progression almost exactly.
He won a challenger the season he turned 17, an ATP title at 18 and won his first Grand Slam when he was 19 - all the same as Nadal.
He did become world No.1 faster than his countryman (At 19 compared to 22) and won four slams quicker than all three GOATs.
Sinner, on the other hand, has followed a path a little closer to Federer.
He won his first Challenger in the season of turning 18 and finished that year in the top-100 - which is the same progression as the Swiss maestro.
He was a year ahead of Federer in winning his first ATP title by the season he turned 19 but a year behind in claiming his maiden Slam win at age 22 going on 23.
The pair also both won three Grand Slams in the following 12 months from their first.
Late bloomers
So does that mean if you haven’t won a Grand Slam by the season you turned 23, you won’t become a great of the game?
Not necessarily.
The only two men’s players to win multiple Slam titles in the past 20 years were Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka.
Murray won a Challenger and an ATP title in the seasons he turned 18 and 19 respectively.
This was very much on track with his GOAT counterparts.
However, he didn’t win a Slam until he was 25-years-old (US Open 2012) despite making three finals when aged 21 to 23.
Wawrinka on the other hand was a late bloomer. He didn’t win an ATP title until the year he turned 21 and he won his first Grand Slam at the Australian Open in 2014 when he was 28 going on 29 years of age.
His final major win was at the US Open in 2016, aged 31.
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Hope for the 90s kids?
Much has been made of the tennis generation born in the 1990s.
Only two have a Grand Slam title: Dominic Thiem (who has since retired) and Daniil Medvedev.
Other players like Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas have made multiple finals but not won.
Zverev turns 28 this year with Ruud and Tsitsipas turning 27.
This is older than when multi-same winner Murray won his first, but younger than Wawrinka.
The remaining Grand Slam winners of the last two decades were Juan Martín Del Potro (won when aged 23), Medvedev (25), Cilic (26) and Thiem (27).
Zverev did follow the GOAT path with an ATP title by 19 and a Top-10 berth by 20-years-old, but time does seem to be running out.
Even though Wawrinka is an outlier, it is still possible.
Particularly as the last GOAT ages and Alcaraz and Sinner face consistency issues in their early years.
New kids on the block
If the 90s kids have a chance, they must get in before others take their place.
Although he has had his issues, Holger Rune has followed the GOAT track.
Challenger title by 18, ATP title by 19, top-10 by 20 - he has hit the milestones.
He has stalled, but he is still only 21 (about to be 22), and like Federer and Sinner, he could bloom later down the track.
Following him are the likes of Arthur Fils and Shang Juncheng who both won an ATP title in the year they turned 19.
And of course, everyone is talking about João Fonseca.
The Brazilian won his first ATP tour title at 18 years and 5 months - younger than Djokovic and Federer did, and just a little behind Nadal and Alcaraz.
Also, watch German Diego Dedura-Palomero who just turned 17 yesterday. He finished last season as a 16-year-old ranked No.600.
This is higher than Djokovic, Federer, and Sinner were at the same age.
The law of averages
Looking at all the data, to become a multi-Slam great of the game, you really need to be claiming your first Grand Slam by 25-years-old. To have a chance of GOAT status, you really need to do this by 23.
The 90s kids may have missed their chance, but Alcaraz and Sinner are leading the way with the likes of Fonseca right behind.
With the gradual departure of the former GOATS, we may finally be about to witness another golden age in the men’s game.
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To come in 2025 the French Open, Wimbledon, US Open and Laver Cup.
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